|
| | |
|
| ||
      |
 Studysoccer.com has details of goal times for many of the matches in its database. This data can be used to estimate the odds for in-play bets. Examples of some in-play bets for which odds can be estimated are:
 The screen above shows the filters that can be used to search in-play fixtures by. They include:
There are also text boxes for the Current Score and Score, this is not a filter, it is used for correct score bets. When determining in-play odds, it is necessary to either set the number of goals that have been scored at a particular point in a match (for over/under bets) or the winning margin for either the home or away team at a particular time (when placing bets on full time or half time results). On the left of the screen are two drop down menus, which are used to select the home and away teams you wish to use in calculating odds for in-play bets. You can select "All Teams" from either of these lists, or you can click on individual teams. You can select multiple teams by holding the "Ctrl" key on your keyboard while making your selection.  In the middle of the screen there are a pair of text boxes into which dates can be entered. These dates specify the range of dates in which matches that will be used to calculate in-play odds must fall within.  You can specify that the matches used to calculate in-play odds must be fixtures where the odds for homewin,draw,awaywin,over 2.5 goals, and under 2.5 goals fall within certain ranges. The text boxes that are used to specify these values are in the middle of the screen.  There are two drop down menus beneath the odds text boxes, which are used to specify additional criteria that the matches which are used to calculate in-play odds must meet.  The smaller drop down menus beside the filters can be used to select either >,<, or =. The text boxes can be filled with numeric values. By default, the text boxes contain -1. Numeric values can be entered in the text boxes. In the image above, we have specified that only matches where the hometeams overall league position is greater than 8th (eg 9th,10th,11th, etc) are to be considered when calculating in-play odds. In the top right corner of the screen, there is a text box where you can specify the "time elapsed". in-play bets are made during the match. The odds on a particular outcome will vary according to how much time has elapsed in the match. This text box is where you specify (in minutes) at what stage of a match you wish to calculate the in-play odds of a particular outcome.  For in-play over/unders bets, it is necessary to also specify how many goals have been scored at the specified time in the match.  The "Number of goals in match" dropdown menu is used to do this. In conjunction with the "Time elapsed" dropdown menu, you can specify that in-play odds be calculated for matches where there have been, for example:
 The "League" dropdown menu can be used to specify the leagues from which matches are used to calculate in-play odds.  Multiple leagues can be selected by holding the "Ctrl" key while making selections. For in-play bets on half-time or final scores, there are text boxes labelled "Current score" and "Score". The "Current score" boxes are used to indicate the score at a particular time in the match. For example, you may want to use these boxes (in conjunction with the "Time elapsed" text box) to specify that the score is 2-0 after 50 minutes. The "Score" box is used to specify what score you wish to calculate in-play odds for (this can be half time or full time. This is specified by your selection from the "Wager" drop down menu). So if you wish to calculate the odds that the match will finish 3-1, the contents of the text boxes would look as below...  The "Wager" drop down menu is used to select the in-play wager that you wish to calculate odds for.   Imagine you want to calculate the in-play odds that the home team will win if they are winning by one goal after thirty minutes. First, select "Home team winning by 1" from the Winning Margin dropdown list. The next step is to enter in the "Time elapsed" text box that 30 minutes have elapsed in the match, and then we select "Full time home win (in play)" from the list of wagers. These operations are encircled in red in the screenshot below.  The database will be searched for matches in which:
 The screen shows all the matches for which in-play information is available, which match the specified criteria. The date, league, home and awayteams, final score, and goaltimes for the home and away teams are displayed. The fixtures which result in the in-play bet winning are highlighted in green, and losing bets are highlighted in red. The search results are spread over several pages if more than 100 results are returned. Users can navigate between the pages using the  and  buttons.
Based on the number of games which match these criteria, and the number of these matches which ended up in a victory for the hometeam, the estimated probability of the home team going on to win the match meeting the above criteria will be calculated. This probability is calculated by using this formula: 1/(Games matching criteria where selected wager was the outcome/Games matching criteria). The estimated odds for this in-play wager will be displayed at the bottom of the search results page, as can be seen in the screenshot below.  In the above screenshot, the in-play bet is described by the "Wager" and the "State of Play" fields. The number of matches in the database which fit the specified criteria is displayed, along with the number of bets from these matches which would have resulted in a win. The percentage of matches resulting in a win is displayed, along with the calculated odds for the in-play bet.  The in-play data in studysoccer.com can be searched using a variety of filters. In the previous example, we did not specify any filters. We could have specified that the odds for the hometeam at the beginning of the match should have been between 2 and 2.2 (see section circled in red in the screenshot below)...  ... and submitted the query as in the previous example (full time home win, 30 minutes gone, hometeam winning by one goal). We see from the screenshot below that the results from this query are fewer, and that the estimated odds are slightly higher than in the previous example where no filters were specified.  In addition to filtering results by hometeam odds, results can be filtered by draw odds, awayteam odds, over 2.5 goals odds, under 2.5 goals odds, league(s), hometeam(s), awayteam(s), date, and up to two of any of the following criteria:
 In-play odds for over/under bets can be estimated as follows. In this example, we will estimate the odds for the match finishing with under 3.5 goals if there is 1 goal scored after 45 minutes and the hometeam has conceded on average less than 1.2 goals per game over their last 10 matches at home. First, select "Hometeam average goals against (at home, last 10 matches)" from the first filter dropdown list, and enter "<" and "1.2" in the adjoining dropdown list and text box. Then select 45 minutes as the elapsed time, and 1 as the number of goals in the match. Select "Under 3.5 goals (in play)" from the Wager dropdown list. These operations are encircled in the screenshot below.  Press the "Submit Query" button, and a page showing the results matching your criteria will be displayed...  As in the previous example, the estimated probability and odds for the in-play wager are at the bottom of this screen (see screenshot below).   In-play odds can also be estimated for half-time and full-time scores. Assume that we wish to estimate the in-play odds for a game finishing 2-0 if after 25 minutes the score is 1-0, and the odds offered by bookmakers for the hometeam winning the match before the match started ranged from 1.8 to 1.95. We specify that we only consider matches where the pre-match odds for the hometeam were in the range 1.8 to 1.95, that 25 minutes have elapsed, and that the hometeam is winning 1-0. We specify that the final score we wish to estimate in-play odds for is 2-0, and that we wish to estimate the in-play odds for a "Final score (in play)" bet by selecting this option from the "Wager" dropdown list. All these options are circled in red in the screenshot below.  Press the "Submit Query" button, and the results screen will appear. All the matches that were 1-0 after 25 minutes, and which ended 2-0 will be highlighted in green. All matches which were 1-0 after 25 minutes, but which did not end 2-0, will be highlighted in red. At the bottom of each page of the results, the bet details, the win rate, and the calculated in-play odds for the match ending 2-0 given the criteria specified will be displayed. The screen shot below illustrates this.  It is important to remember that:
|